Interview trailer for Documentary “Planet Lockdown” featuring Epidemiology expert Knut Wittkowsky, Ph.D.

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what is it
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after my phd in computer science, i worked with klaus dietz one of the
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leading epidemiologists in tubingen one of the oldest
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universities and during that time
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i studied the epidemiology of hiv and predicted correctly that it would
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never ever spread among german and by extension caucasian heterosexuals
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and then after many more years and where spent time
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in egypt and in lebanon studying epidemics there
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i ended up at the rockefeller university
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in new york heading the unit for biostatistics,
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epidemiology and research design
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at the rockefeller university hospital
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and clinical and translational research
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center we cannot fight the spread we can direct
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it. It will either spread among the young
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and healthy
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and have little cause little death
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or it will spread among the elderly and
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vulnerable
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and will cause many deaths we can direct
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it
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but we cannot fight it we cannot
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fight nature nature always
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wins
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what do you think of the government
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policy
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well they were counterproductive and the
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reason
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for a counterproductive strategy to be
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chosen
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was that no qualified epidemiologist
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was heard the task force in the united
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states
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does not include a single epidemiologist
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not a single md with experience and
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respiratory diseases
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so we have a response that was not
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up to the task
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well we have seen that both in china
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in wuhan and we have seen it in south
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korea
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that if you are not
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stopping or trying to mitigate the
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spread of
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such a respiratory disease it
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spreads within three four maybe five
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weeks
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the united states is a large country
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where it takes more
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time to get from for the virus from one
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end to the other end
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so it could have been six or seven weeks
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but by
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now it would be long over if we hadn’t
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used a strategy
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to delay the spread in the population
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and therefore allow the virus for a lot
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longer to legal
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linger on and infect
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the vulnerable people and
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cause death
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if you really understand
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the dynamics of diseases if you see the
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government
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failing in the most
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blatant fashion it is depressing
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what do you do to stay positive through
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this
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we cannot force a government to listen
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to scientists
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if they don’t want to do it there is
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nothing you can do
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if it’s a virus that hasn’t been seen
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before
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in this particular form we don’t have a
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vaccine and so waiting a couple of
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months
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for a vaccine if the whole spread
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of the virus otherwise would take only a
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few weeks
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is something that i don’t consider a
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very rational strategy to deal with the
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respiratory
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disease virus that this
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is not too different from
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flus that we have seen before we had
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expected
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it to be 25 000 to 65
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000 death in the united states it’s now
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higher
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but it’s in part higher because of all
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of the mitigation
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so without that mitigation and probably
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would have been closer
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to a normal flu a bad flu but still a
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normal flu
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okay the whole thing doesn’t make sense
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we have no indication whatsoever
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that this respiratory virus disease
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is different from any other respiratory
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virus diseases
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what we have seen in china in south
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korea
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in many european countries and parts
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in new york we have seen it arriving
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spreading peaking
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declining and being over
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there was no visible difference
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between this epidemic
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and other flues
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it is the same thing every flu
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has its particular characteristics
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some fluids are more dangerous for the
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young other flues like this
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are more dangerous for the elderly some
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like the 1918 1970 flu
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are more dangerous for those
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who are young adults although that is
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very rare
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but they’re all slightly different but
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in the end they all follow the same
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natural rules for epidemics
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as far as we see unless
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we see the effects of mitigation
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prolonging it
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what we see is what forest law
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describes it’s a nice bell shape
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and it’s always the same with any
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epidemic
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including this
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so is there any reason to be armed upset
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paranoid concerned
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not from the disease i don’t know
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what the reasons are to make people fear
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and paranoid and any of those
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the disease is a bad flu especially for
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those
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who are older and have co-morbidities
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but other than that this is a flu like
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any other flu we have seen over the last
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100 years
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for more than 10 years the cdc
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has a monitoring system for influencer
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like illnesses
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so all hospitals
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count how many people arrive at the
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emergency room
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with fever coughing or other flu like
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symptoms you they monitor this and every
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year
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you find one or two of these peaks
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during the flu season
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on april the 17th robert redfield
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presented a graph in the white house to
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the task force
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showing that this year’s we have three
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peaks
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it’s a bit unusual the first by the end
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of feb
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sorry by the end of december was
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influenza b
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in early february it was influenza
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a and then there was a third peak
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in mid march and that was
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now these three peaks looked all the
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same there was no apparent difference
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it would covet 19 by
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every measure including what the f the
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cdc
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reported was very similar
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to not to other flues that we are
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have seen and dealt with without any
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problems
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in over the last 100 years
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so was there a need at all to have a
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shutdown at all
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no there was no need for a shutdown
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although i can understand that in
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mid-march
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there was a fear that the hospital
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system might get overwhelmed so that was
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not a totally
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unreasonable fear to have however
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the ship that came to new york or the
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field hospital
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in the davis conference center where
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never needed
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new york was capable to weather that
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storm
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without major incidents
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and so by mid april
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the ship was leaving the javits center
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was
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never used the epidemic was essentially
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over declining massively
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it was clear that there was no
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more danger anywhere in the united
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states
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so on april the 18th
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we could have reopened schools
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the economy and said well
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we were afraid for one year for one
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month
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but it turned out to be not as dangerous
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as we thought it might be
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so let’s go back and live our lives
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it is totally
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unconceivable why
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one would continue the shutdown
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passed april the 18th
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there was no reason whatever
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that i could see
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the data was there so
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this is not a problem of data
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the data was there robert redfield
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presented it
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to the task force in the
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white house the data showing
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that the epidemic was essentially
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over of course
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it could spread into some of the other
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states and
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yeah it could some other things could
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happen
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but there was no urgency no danger
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anymore
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no justifiable
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fear that anywhere else in the united
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states
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the hospital system could have become
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overwhelmed
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it didn’t happen in new york and the
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upper
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and the northeast
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the south and the west had already
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slow run in so everything that would
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happen
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would be less dramatic than it was in
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the northeast
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so we knew that this was
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an epidemic we could manage like every
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other epidemic before
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the worst the worst thing you can do
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during an epidemic for an
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epidemiologist to make an assessment of
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what’s going on
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is to change the definitions of what is
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being reported
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and in this epidemic the definitions of
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what is
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a death what is a related death
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and what is a case have constantly been
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changed
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there is almost every week a new
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definition
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that makes it impossible to compare the
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data
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that we have collected before and the
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data that we are
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collecting after the definition
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so initially it was cases who died
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off the disease or off the virus
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then it was cases who died with the
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virus
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then it was cases who died in a
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situation
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where the virus was known to spread
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and now cases are those
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who are being tested positive
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but have no symptoms whatsoever
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so they are just going through a period
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of
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symptomless infection to become
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immune after a couple of days and they
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are being called
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cases as if this were something dramatic
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and difficult and deadly
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when in fact they don’t even have
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symptoms
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and they have no risk of dying
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whatsoever
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herd immunity is the only thing that
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stops
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the spread of a respiratory disease
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virus
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either it’s the immune hurt immunity
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that develops by itself
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or it has hurt immunity that is
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improved sped up by giving a vaccine
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that makes it makes it easier to
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reach to reach that level of hurt
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immunity earlier
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i think people don’t understand that
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this
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is not something that people invented
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this is how over many many
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generations thousands of years
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humans have successfully dealt
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with respiratory disease viruses it is
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just a word to describe
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what evolution has come up with as
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the most effective way for humans to
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deal with viruses
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with this type of viruses
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this is for me
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so with cyrus cuff 2 we will not be able
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to
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rely on a vaccine it will be over by
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natural health immunity before we will
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have a vaccine
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for somebody who has lived in a couple
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of places in the world new york city
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feels
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pretty much at home
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and how has it been through all this
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chronovirus situation
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a bit depressing living in a city that
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usually
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is lively with people going out with
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suddenly living in an environment where
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everybody is afraid
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everybody staying at home nobody talking
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is very depressing
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situation or was a very depressing
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situation
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it’s getting a bit better now that we
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can actually
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even eat in the city
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do you think any of these social
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distancing and mass scoring
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provisions make any sense
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they may delay people from becoming
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infected
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being ill becoming ill and some of them
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dying
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but other than delaying that process
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it doesn’t have any effect
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one thing that it may be
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counterproductive
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the problem being that if you are
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preventing the spread
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of virus among
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the young and the healthy you’re not
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stemming the spread
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of the virus you are just
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redirecting it and if the virus cannot
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spread among the young and healthy
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it will spread among the elderly and
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more vulnerable so you’re actually
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increasing
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the risk of the virus causing death
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for hurt immunity to be achieved
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about 50 let’s take that number
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need to become infected
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and if it’s children who become infected
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they never
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almost never get ill and they don’t die
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on the other hand if the elderly who
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become infected they often get ill
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severely ill and many of them die
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now by mitigating
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you can direct the spread of the disease
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if you isolate the elderly
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then you direct the disease to spread
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primarily among the young and
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healthy with little damage
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on the other hand if you prevent
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children in schools and adults who are
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working from becoming infected the virus
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will spread
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more among the elderly and vulnerable
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and you have more death so
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preventing spread among the young and
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healthy
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is likely to increase the number of
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deaths
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and the same is true for wearing masks
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if you’re preventing the young and
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healthy from becoming
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infected because they’re wearing masks
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it will
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spread more among the elderly and
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vulnerable
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and will cause more death it is just
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the nature of law like my name say king
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knewt
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there was a king in denmark
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and britain or actually england at that
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time
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who was my namesake his name was knude
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and he showed that even the
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most powerful king at that time which
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was him
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he could not stem the flow of the tide
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he went to the shore and told the tide
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to stay away
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and the tide didn’t stay away the tide
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came and the same thing
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is when we’re trying to say well we want
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to
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the virus not to spread we cannot stem
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the tide of the virus the virus is
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coming and spreading
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we can only direct it a bit typically it
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would spread
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primarily among the young and
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healthy and cause little damage and if
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we do all the mitigation that we have
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done right now it will spread more
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among the elderly and vulnerable and we
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have more death
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what we should have done and we knew
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that from the experience
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in italy and from the first cases
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develop or the first death in nursing
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homes
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in seattle we should have isolated
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the nursing homes and kept the schools
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and the economy open instead what was
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done
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to shut down the schools and the economy
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and leave the nursing homes open
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is the barber of sevilla and it has a
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second title the futile precaution
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we have seen that theme being played on
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the largest
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stage possible the entire world
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you