USC Professor Joel Hay: No scientific proof that social distancing works

Joel W. Hay, PhD; Professor, Department of Pharmaceutical and Health Economics, USC School of Pharmacy

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH4tAq-PP7s[/embedyt]

Video Transcript

00:00
get the all-clear to go back to work but
00:02
the debate on whether it’s safe – or if
00:05
we’ve flattened the curve enough
00:06
continues here to speak more on this is
00:09
USC professor of pharmaceutical and
00:11
health economics Joel hey Joel good to
00:13
see you this morning thank you for
00:14
joining us
00:15
yeah thanks for having me so there are
00:18
two I would say on the extreme ends
00:21
school of thoughts when it comes to
00:23
getting back to work getting our economy
00:25
running again one being you know let’s
00:29
just open everything up and go back to
00:32
work and then on the other end there’s
00:33
no we haven’t done enough we need to
00:35
stay home stay in this lockdown further
00:37
you sort of represent the let’s open up
00:41
let’s get back to work you’ve been
00:42
questioning in articles that this idea
00:45
of social distancing can you can you
00:47
speak to that a little bit correct in
00:49
fact there’s no basis there’s no
00:51
scientific evidence to support social
00:55
distancing with this particular virus
00:58
c19 social distancing is for viruses
01:02
that are very lethal but not that
01:04
contagious and transmissible this is
01:07
probably the most contagious virus we’ve
01:10
ever seen I mean it leaped around the
01:12
world in a matter of weeks or months
01:15
probably was in Los Angeles and
01:17
California generally last year I mean
01:22
keep in mind this is the kovat 19 virus
01:24
it is from last year and it’s been
01:27
around for a long time and that’s what a
01:28
lot of the serology data is now starting
01:31
to show we just had a big study in LA
01:33
County showing that about 70 times more
01:36
people are positive for C 19 then their
01:40
tests were showing when you go out and
01:42
test asymptomatic people out in the
01:45
community they are asymptomatic there
01:49
see 19 positive and it’s not affecting
01:52
them well yes and some of those studies
01:54
are obviously in question still because
01:57
the antigen tests have not proven to be
01:59
100% accurate or effective but we are
02:01
also learning that it has been in
02:03
California earlier than then first
02:06
reported based on an autopsy that was
02:08
just not 100% effective is the idea of
02:12
social closure
02:14
they said that if we reduced office work
02:17
if we shut down restaurants and
02:19
non-essential businesses if we cut
02:21
transportation if we shut down the
02:25
schools that we were due spiral
02:27
transmission to zero guess what
02:29
none of that happened so all these
02:31
people that question this or that
02:33
they’re based their entire intervention
02:37
of social distancing on no evidence I
02:40
know plenty of evidence that the virus
02:44
has been out there for a long time and
02:46
we got to open things up I understand
02:49
that it’s hard to you know to prove a
02:52
negative but wouldn’t you say you’re
02:54
saying there’s no science to prove that
02:55
social distancing is working on a virus
02:57
like this but wouldn’t you say by
02:58
looking at New York you could say that
03:01
the the opposite might be true that we
03:02
don’t have evidence to show that it’s
03:04
not working I mean you look at a densely
03:06
populated area like New York and where
03:09
it’s it’s very hard to socially distance
03:10
a lot of people early on we’re not
03:11
listening to the advice and yet we’ve
03:13
seen how drastic and devastating the
03:16
cases and deaths of covin 19 have been
03:19
in a city like that well keep in mind
03:22
that South Korea is even more dense than
03:25
New York City and they’ve only had less
03:27
than 250 deaths total and they’ve been
03:30
involved in this longer than anybody
03:32
else and they never shut down anything
03:34
you can say that the New York City
03:35
disaster was a lot due to panicked
03:39
health care workers who did not have
03:41
proper protective equipment and used
03:44
ventilators which are now known not to
03:46
be good for many c19 patients and can
03:50
actually increase risk of death among
03:52
many c19 patients so that was actually
03:56
totally inappropriately done keep in
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mind a couple very important stats
04:02
eighty percent of pregnant women in a
04:06
recent study the only one that I’m not
04:08
aware of so it’s the only one we know
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about
04:10
we’re see 19 positive not a single baby
04:14
born in the United States so far to my
04:17
knowledge as see 19 and died because of
04:21
see 19 so why are we shutting down the
04:25
schools kids don’t affect it by this
04:28
and then take prisoners 2.3 million
04:31
American prisoners only 35 deaths forced
04:36
social mixing less deaths and the rest
04:39
of the country come on how do they
04:42
explain that well I I think is it isn’t
04:45
it not accurate to kind of take into the
04:48
health of a population I mean if you’re
04:49
talking about a younger population with
04:52
without some of these comorbidities that
04:54
go along with it it seems as though
04:57
people are doing well with it but you
04:59
take in elderly population and some of
05:01
these other comorbidities like obesity
05:03
and diabetes numbers of which the United
05:07
States has the highest in the world
05:09
it would seem that though that’s that’s
05:11
also something to take into effect is
05:13
the situation yeah do what we always do
05:18
isolate them if you’re frail and sick
05:21
and immune compromised maybe you got
05:24
cancer or something yeah isolate
05:26
yourself and make sure those people
05:28
around you stay isolated but don’t
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isolate the young and healthy
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Sweden crew that that’s how you get the
05:35
herd immunity that’s how you get the
05:37
social mixing that’s how we’ve done it
05:39
naturally for millions of years what is
05:42
this nonsense you don’t shut down the
05:45
globe or something that’s normal flu or
05:48
even two to three times normal flu this
05:51
is destroying millions of lives and
05:53
killing about a hundred people for
05:56
everyone it ostensibly saves well these
05:59
are good discussions to have there’s a
06:01
lot of debate going on about getting us
06:03
back to work so we will continue to have
06:06
the discussion in terms of the burden of
06:09
this on everyone we have a survey that
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we would love your audience to get
06:15
involved in and get their friends and
06:17
acquaintances involved in and that’s at
06:19
Joel Hakam we’re capturing the burden of
06:22
this illness and it’s devastating all
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right Joel hey calm people can go there
06:27
and fill that out Joel thank you for
06:28
your take this morning thanks a lot well
06:32
local bike shops are experiencing a
06:34
spike in sales amid this
06:36
and a Maquis