Dr. Sam Bailey, MD: What the Covid PCR test actually tests for, and why it’s so inaccurate

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hey guys my name is dr sam today i
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wanted to give you an update about what
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is going on
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right now in new zealand in regards to
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covert 19.
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i also wanted to talk a little bit about
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the pcr test
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in vaccines now as per my last video on
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social distancing i am not being paid to
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talk about this and what i’m going to
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say is just my personal opinion
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this is such a polarizing topic and can
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make a lot of people feel
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really angry or upset so of course do
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your own
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research so that you can reach your own
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decision
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i will link any references that i’ve
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used in the description
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in my home country new zealand when the
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government
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sends an emergency alert to your mobile
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phone about a lockdown this is what it
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sounds like
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[Applause]
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if that doesn’t put the fear of god into
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you i don’t know what else will
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in actual fact in the beginning of the
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epidemic we had one of the world’s
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strictest lockdowns for four weeks
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because we needed to
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flatten the curve new zealand public
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health advisors
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admitted that we are all taking part in
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an experiment
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and it’s hard to know what might happen
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soon enough the goal became to
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eliminate the virus entirely
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now up until recently lots of
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international media have been praising
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the new zealand government
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on their success of a hundred days with
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no community transmission
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of course from the outside people want
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to know how did this happen
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this is where it gets interesting i
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wanted to go over
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the community testing procedure prior to
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august
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essentially to get a covert 19 pcrts
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done in the community
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you had to have symptoms plus be at risk
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of having caught the infection
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so symptoms being defined as having a
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new respiratory infection
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plus or minus a fever plus another
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symptom like new or worsening cough
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sore throat shortness of breath runny
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nose
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or loss of smell i won’t bore you
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with the details of what it means to be
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at risk but all the expected stuff like
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recent overseas travel in the last two
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weeks etc etc
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the key point here is you had to have
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symptoms now why
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is this important
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there is no way this paper could work
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paper you will always feel secure tune
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in next time on what this muppet lab’s
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new answer to the energy crisis
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flammable water that’s all for now
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there is a fundamental concept in
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medicine which is called
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pre-test probability and this was
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tattooed into my brain at medical school
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and in simple terms pre-test probability
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is the chance of a patient having the
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target disease before the diagnostic
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test result is known
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so for example you don’t test for
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pregnancy in men
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because the chance of a biological man
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being pregnant is zero
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all tests have a possibility of
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reporting a false positive or a false
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negative and if your pre-test
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probability is low
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you are more likely to get high false
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positives and false negative results
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so what does this mean for the covert 19
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pcr test
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as many of you already know there are
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major problems with this
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diagnostic test in that it doesn’t test
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for
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the virus it tests for a piece of
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genetic material that we don’t know
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the significance of the pcr test has
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never been compared
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to a gold standard because there is none
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for covert 19 and that in itself
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makes interpreting the accuracy
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of positive and negative results very
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problematic i’m not going to talk about
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this in detail as other youtubers have
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already covered this topic
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much better than i can but let me play
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devil’s advocate and assume for
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argument’s sake that this pcr test
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is scientifically sound the pcr test is
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supposed to be used
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as a diagnostic test not as a screening
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test and the difference between a
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diagnostic test
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and a screening test is that patients
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that undergo screening
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do not have symptoms what did you say
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now you might think but lots of people
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have tested positive for covert 19 who
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don’t have symptoms
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exactly how can one interpret this
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it’s because medical staff are testing
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people inappropriately
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you can’t use a diagnostic test as a
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screening test
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right from may to the beginning of
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august in new zealand
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community testing stations started
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closing down and people
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went back to normal with shops opening
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people going back to work
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fewer people social distancing and even
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smaller numbers wearing masks
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but then something changed in august
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all of a sudden cobit community testing
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stations were opening up again
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with money available to start
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surveillance testing
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this rolled out across the country with
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pop-up testing centres
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looking to test people without symptoms
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soon enough there were four new cases in
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auckland
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from an unknown source on the 11th of
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august
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and then all hal broke loose and
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auckland was put
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into level 3 lockdown while the rest of
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the country went up to level 2.
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masks are now mandatory for passengers
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on public transport
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and most importantly there was a change
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from the ministry on how
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community testing is being done which
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was that
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asymptomatic people are now being made
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to have covert pcr tests
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inconceivable like i said before the pcr
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test is not a screening test and should
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not be used as one
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right onto vaccines
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again i do not wish to tell you what to
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do or what not to do in regards to the
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question of getting a coronavirus
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vaccine
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that should be entirely your own choice
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personally i’ve had
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all my own childhood vaccinations and
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travel vaccines in the past
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but i will not be getting the
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coronavirus vaccine in the future
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and my reasoning for this is firstly
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that vaccines take a very long time to
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make and it’s likely this epidemic will
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have finished by the time one reaches
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the market
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the shortest length of time to make a
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vaccine and history was
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four years for months and that was
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pushed out in record time
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secondly seasonal vaccines do not reduce
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deaths in winter
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in the elderly obviously i’m not elderly
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but there was a very good large study
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done back in 2005 that concluded that
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giving
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flu vaccinations to people aged 45 to 74
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years does not prevent them dying from
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the flu
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overall my main issue against
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vaccinations is that i do not believe
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they should ever be compulsory
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or required in order for someone to seek
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employment
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gain an education or to travel
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coronaviruses and
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influenza viruses are similar and that
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they are both seasonal
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but i’m far more likely to die from
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poisoning or a car accident at my age
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than from covert 19. can you believe
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that after nine months of the pandemic
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something like 0.01
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of the world’s population has died from
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covert 19
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and these numbers include cases where
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people died with covert rather than
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causally because of covert
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when you compare this to the spanish flu
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which killed 2 to 2.5 percent of the
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world’s population
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the fatality rate is far smaller as
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always please give this video a like if
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what you’d like to learn more about and
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feel free to check out some of my other
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videos on infections
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thanks so much for watching and i really
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hope to see you again soon